Highlights

• • Market implies Home ~40.3%, Away ~67.1% (overround ~7.4%)
• • Our conservative true estimate (Home 40%) requires min odds 2.50 — current 2.48 is insufficient

Pros

• + We use conservative, neutral probability assumptions given lack of data
• + Clear math shows both sides are negative EV at current prices

Cons

• - No match-specific data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty
• - A small change in true probability (≈+1% for home) would flip the decision

Details

We compared the market prices to conservative, baseline win probabilities given no additional match intelligence. The market-implied probabilities are: Home 1/2.48 = 40.3% and Away 1/1.49 = 67.1% (total market overround ~7.4%). With no surface, injury, form or H2H data available, we adopt a conservative split of Home 40% / Away 60% as a neutral baseline. At that estimated true probability the home player would require decimal odds of 1/0.40 = 2.50 to be +EV, which is slightly better than the offered 2.48, so no positive edge exists. The away price (1.49) implies a required true win probability of 67.1% to be profitable; our conservative estimate of 60% is well below that, so the away line is also negative EV. Because neither side shows positive expected value against current prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No external data available — we use a conservative baseline probability split
• • Market-implied odds show an overround (~7.4%) favoring the away side
• • Home needs odds ≥ 2.50 for positive EV; current 2.48 falls slightly short