E. Ambarzumjan/P. Sallay vs C. Campese/D. Suresh
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value detected at current prices; both sides appear priced such that neither offers a positive expected value under conservative probability estimates.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (1.43) ≈ 69.9%; our estimate 65.0% -> negative EV
- • Away needs >37.74% to be +EV; our conservative estimate ~35% -> also negative EV
Pros
- + Market likely reflects real strength advantage for the home pair
- + Conservative approach avoids overbetting with no supporting data
Cons
- - Limited information increases uncertainty — true edge could exist but is not provable
- - If our conservative probability underestimates the favorite, small missed opportunities may occur
Details
We estimate the home pair is the market favorite but lack independent data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H, so we apply a conservative model. The market-implied win probability for the home side at 1.43 is ~69.9%. Our conservative true probability estimate for the home team is 65.0%, below the ~69.9% break-even threshold, producing a negative expected return at the current price. Conversely, the away price (2.65) requires a true win probability >37.74% to be +EV; given symmetric uncertainty and the market favoring the home team, we estimate the away chance ~35% — also below its break-even. With neither side showing positive expected value at available prices, we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • No independent recent form, injury, or H2H data available — we use conservative priors
- • Market pricing: home 1.43 implies ~69.9% win probability; our conservative estimate is 65.0%
- • Neither side clears the break-even threshold at current odds (no positive EV)