E. Cascino/Shuo Feng vs V. Erjavec/Z. Kulambayeva

Highlights

• • Away price 1.67 implies ~59.9% chance.
• • Our conservative estimated probability is 58.0%, requiring >=1.724 odds for value.

Pros

• + Market prices reflect a clear favorite, which aligns with available (limited) form indicators.
• + We are conservative in our probability estimate given sparse doubles data, avoiding overreach.

Cons

• - Sparse and incomplete data on doubles pair form and partner chemistry increases uncertainty.
• - Shuo Feng's singles struggles suggest vulnerability, but doubles context could differ and is unknown.

Details

We find insufficient edge to back either side given the available information. The market prices the away pair (V. Erjavec/Z. Kulambayeva) at 1.67 (implied ~59.9%). Based on the limited data—most notably Shuo Feng's weak recent singles form (10-21 overall, poor recent results) and no usable information on doubles-specific form, partnership history, or injuries—we conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 58.0%. At that probability the fair price would be ~1.724 decimal. Using the current favorite price of 1.67 produces a small negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.031 per unit), so there is no clear positive-value play. Given the lack of doubles-specific data and close alignment between our probability estimate and market-implied probability, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Shuo Feng has poor recent form in recorded singles matches (10-21 overall; weak recent results).
• • No doubles-specific form, partnership history, or injury information is available to justify deviation from market.
• • Market-implied probability for the away side (1.67) is very close to our conservative true-probability estimate, leaving no positive edge.