E. Evans/A. Shkutova vs L. Rothensteiner/M. Villet
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend betting the home side at 2.55 — our estimated win probability for the home pair (35%) implies a required price of ~2.857 for value, so current odds are negative EV.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability (market) ~39% vs our estimate 35%
- • Required decimal odds for value (home) ≈ 2.857; current is 2.55
Pros
- + Home is priced as an underdog, so a value opportunity could exist if further positive intel on the pairing emerges
- + Limited public form data could mean market overstates the away side in some scenarios
Cons
- - E. Evans' provided recent results are poor, lowering confidence in a home win
- - No doubles-specific performance or partner data in the research increases uncertainty and risk
Details
We estimate the home pair (E. Evans/A. Shkutova) has limited value at the current moneyline. The only provided performance data is E. Evans' poor recent record (10-21 through the 2024-25 span) and weak form in her recent matches, which suggests a below-favorite win probability. The market prices the away side at 1.47 (implied ~68%), and the offered home price of 2.55 (implied ~39%) is lower than the probability we assign to the home side (35%); that produces a negative expected value. Given the sparse doubles-specific data, unknown partner quality, and clear market favoritism toward the away side, we do not see profitable value at current odds.
Key factors
- • E. Evans' recent form is poor (10-21 record in the provided span) suggesting lower win expectancy
- • Doubles pairing information and partner quality (Shkutova) are not provided, increasing uncertainty
- • Market heavily favors the away side (1.47 implied ~68%); home price 2.55 does not compensate for our estimated probability