E. Gerasimov/M. Kukushkin vs M. Geerts/T. Loof
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We identify a small positive expected value on the away pair at 1.26 based on a conservative true-win estimate of 81%; this is a low-margin, information-sensitive play.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability 79.4% vs our 81.0% estimate
- • Estimated ROI ≈ 2.06% at current odds (small edge)
Pros
- + Market strongly favors the away pair, aligning with our estimate
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (though modest)
Cons
- - Edge is small and sensitive to any unreported injury or lineup change
- - No external match-level data (surface, H2H, recent form) to increase confidence
Details
The market prices the away pair at 1.26 (implied win probability ≈ 79.4%). With no additional external data available and using conservative assumptions (no reported injuries, typical form advantage for the market favorite in doubles), we estimate the away pair's true win probability at 81.0%. Comparing our estimate to the market: 0.81 > 0.7937, producing a small positive edge. This is a low-margin value opportunity rather than a large edge — the recommendation rests on the market strongly favoring the away side and the lack of contrary information. We avoid fabricating surface, H2H, or injury details and therefore use a conservative probability premium over the market to reflect reasonable confidence in the favorite.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for away = ~79.4%, our estimate = 81.0%
- • No injury or form information available; we assume both pairs are fit
- • Small edge only — value depends on market accuracy and absence of unseen negatives