E. Micic/B. Thompson vs H. Arakawa/A. Miyamoto

Highlights

• • Away implied probability (1/1.27) = 78.7%; our estimate = 76.0%
• • Calculated EV on away at current odds = -3.5% (no value)

Pros

• + Market strongly favors the away side, which aligns with a plausible higher win probability
• + If additional positive information for the favorite appears, there may be value at current odds

Cons

• - No independent data to justify a higher probability than the market — we remain conservative
• - Small margin between market-implied and our estimated probabilities creates little to no value and high sensitivity to estimation error

Details

We compared the market prices (Away 1.27, Home 3.50) to a conservative, data-sparse estimate. With no injury, form, surface, or H2H data available, we assume the market has priced the away side as a clear favorite. Conservatively we estimate the away team's true win probability at 76.0% (0.760). The market-implied probability at 1.27 is ~78.7%, which is slightly higher than our estimate, producing a small negative edge: EV = 0.760 * 1.27 - 1 = -0.035 (–3.5% ROI). The home price at 3.50 implies ~28.6% and would require a true win probability of 28.6% or higher to be viable; our conservative estimate for the home side is much lower, so betting the underdog shows a larger negative EV. Given the lack of corroborating information and the market's short price on the favorite, we do not find positive expected value at the currently available odds.

Key factors

• • No external data on form, surface, injuries, or H2H — we use conservative baseline assumptions
• • Market implies a ~78.7% chance for the away favorite; our conservative estimate is lower at 76.0%
• • Small negative edge on the favorite at current prices; underdog odds would need to be substantially higher to be valuable