E. Alonso/J. Bautista vs F. Chingotto/A. Galan
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — the heavy favorite is overpriced relative to our conservative win probability estimate, and the longshot does not meet break-even probability.
Highlights
- • Away implied probability: ~94.3% (1.06)
- • Our conservative estimate: 92% → current odds produce negative EV
Pros
- + Market strongly favors the away side, indicating bookmakers see a clear favorite
- + If additional confirming information appears (injury, withdrawal), edges could change quickly
Cons
- - Available favorite price (1.06) is too short to generate value against our conservative probability
- - No independent data on form/surface/H2H — uncertainty is high
Details
The market strongly favors the away pair at 1.06 (implied ~94.3%). With no external research available, we adopt a conservative estimated true probability for the away team of 92% to account for unknowns (surface, fitness, form, H2H). At that estimate the fair decimal price would be ~1.087, which is higher than the available 1.06, so the current price offers negative expected value. The long home price (8.5) would require an ~11.76% true win probability to break even; our conservative estimate for the home side (8%) is below that so it also looks unprofitable. Given the very short favorite price and the lack of verifiable intel, we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Market implies a ~94.3% chance for the away side at 1.06
- • No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — we apply conservative estimates
- • Break-even price for our estimate (1.087) is above the available price, so no value