E. Ambarzumjan/P. Sallay vs C D. Chauhan/N. Naveen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small positive edge on the home favorite at 1.15 (EV ~ +3.5%) based on a conservative 90% true win probability, but uncertainty is high due to lack of match-specific data.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability: ~86.96%; our estimate: 90%
- • Positive but small EV (3.5%) at current odds
Pros
- + Price is slightly inflated relative to our conservative win-probability estimate
- + Short, clear-priced favorite — low variance if estimate is accurate
Cons
- - No available research on injuries, surface, form, or H2H — elevates estimation risk
- - Edge is small; a slight overestimate of true probability removes value
Details
The market price (Home 1.15) implies a win probability of ~86.96%. Given the heavy favorite status and lack of contradictory information, we assume a conservative true win probability of 90.0% for E. Ambarzumjan/P. Sallay. At our estimate the current price offers positive value: EV = 0.90 * 1.15 - 1 = 0.035 (3.5% ROI). The margin is small, so this is a low-edge, short-term value play; it relies on the favorite being materially stronger than implied by the market or on the market understating match certainty. Key uncertainties (no available injury/form/H2H data, surface, and variance in doubles) increase model risk, so we remain conservative in our probability and note the position is sensitive to small changes in the true win probability.
Key factors
- • Current market implies ~86.96% probability (Home 1.15); our conservative true probability is 90%
- • No external data available on injuries, recent form, surface, or H2H — increases uncertainty
- • Short-match variance in doubles means small probability estimation errors materially affect EV