E. Cook/T. Sach vs L. McFadzean/B. O'Connell

Highlights

• • Home implied probability (~87%) is far above our estimated 60%
• • Backing the favorite at 1.15 produces a negative ROI (~-31%) by our estimate

Pros

• + Market clearly favors the home side, so a heavy favorite could be legitimate if other data existed
• + Some of Cook's matches are on hard courts which align with recent events (so surface isn't an outright mismatch)

Cons

• - E. Cook's recent form and overall 10-21 record do not justify an ~87% win probability
• - No research provided for the away pairing, increasing model uncertainty and making the short home price risky

Details

We see the market strongly favors the home side at 1.15 (implied ~87%). The only player data provided (E. Cook) shows a short career window and a subpar match record (10-21) with multiple recent losses on hard courts, indicating weaker form than a 87% chance would imply. We have no research data for L. McFadzean/B. O'Connell, creating additional uncertainty. Given Cook's recent results and the lack of supporting data for a dominant probability, we estimate the home side's true win probability is substantially lower than the market-implied number, producing negative expected value at the current price. Therefore we do not recommend a bet at the quoted lines.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1.15) is ~87%, which is very short
• • E. Cook record 10-21 with multiple recent losses, including on hard surfaces
• • No verifiable data provided for opponents L. McFadzean/B. O'Connell—adds uncertainty and prevents trusting such a short price