Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.38 = 72.5%
• • Our conservative true probability estimate = 65%; negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Home pairing is the market favorite, implying a perceived edge
• + Current odds are consistent with a strong pre-match favorite

Cons

• - Price is too short to offer positive expected value given our probability estimate
• - Insufficient external information increases forecast risk

Details

We compare the market-implied probability (1/1.38 = 72.5%) to our conservative estimated win probability for E. Gerasimov/M. Kukushkin of 65%. Given the lack of external data (surface, form, injuries, H2H) we apply conservative assumptions and account for doubles volatility. At our estimated 65% true probability the fair decimal price is 1.538; the current offered 1.38 is too short to offer positive expected value. Therefore we do not recommend backing the favorite at the listed price.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (72.5%) exceeds our conservative true estimate (65%)
• • No external data on surface, recent form, injuries or H2H — increases estimation uncertainty
• • Doubles matches have higher variance; favorites need a larger edge to supply value