E. Guerrero Alvarez/E. Milovanovic vs G. Knutson/M. Rapolu
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small positive edge on the home pair at 2.38 because our conservative estimated win probability (44%) exceeds the market-implied probability (~42%), producing ~4.7% ROI per unit stake.
Highlights
- • Estimated true probability: 44% vs market-implied ~42%
- • Required fair odds 2.273; current price 2.38 gives slight value
Pros
- + Small positive expected value at current price
- + Conservative estimate reduces risk of overcalling value without data
Cons
- - Very limited information (no form, surface, injury, or H2H data) increases uncertainty
- - Edge is small — sensitive to modest estimation errors
Details
With no external data available we apply a conservative neutral prior and adjust for typical market bias favoring favorites. The market-implied probability for the home side at 2.38 is ~42.0%; we estimate a slightly higher true probability of 44% based on the notion that doubles matches and smaller-league lines can underprice underdog volatility and matchup-specific variance. That estimated probability implies fair decimal odds of ~2.273; the current price of 2.38 therefore offers a small positive edge. Given the limited information, we remain conservative about the margin but still identify value because our estimated probability exceeds the market-implied probability for the home team.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability for home (1/2.38 ≈ 42.0%) is below our conservative true estimate
- • Doubles matches and lower-tier events can produce mispricing due to less sharp market liquidity
- • No injury/venue/form data available, so we apply a conservative uplift to the underdog probability