E. Kalieva/Gabriela Lee vs A. Tikhonova/T. Wuerth
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Insufficient evidence to beat the market price for the home doubles pair; current home odds (2.75) are too short relative to our conservative 34% win probability.
Highlights
- • Market implies home win ~36.4%; we estimate 34.0%
- • Home needs >= 2.941 decimal to be profitable by our estimate
Pros
- + Home is priced as an underdog, so a material mispricing would be profitable
- + Gabriela Lee has experience on clay and hard, so surface mismatch is not apparent
Cons
- - Gabriela Lee's recent form shown is weak and limited to singles; doubles form unknown
- - No data available on Kalieva, Tikhonova, or Wuerth to identify a clear edge
Details
We find no value at the quoted prices. The market prices A. Tikhonova/T. Wuerth strongly at 1.41 (implied ~70.9%) and E. Kalieva/G. Lee at 2.75 (implied ~36.4%). Our limited, reliable data is only on Gabriela Lee (poor recent singles results and limited sample), and we lack meaningful information on her doubles form, her partner Kalieva, and the opponents. Given that uncertainty we assign a cautious true win probability for the home pair of 34.0%. At the current home price (2.75) that probability produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.34*2.75 - 1 = -0.065), so the available odds are too short to be profitable. To be attractive, the home side would need at least decimal 2.941 or higher. Without stronger evidence (partner form, opponent weakness, injury news, or a bigger price), we recommend no bet.
Key factors
- • Limited, reliable data: only Gabriela Lee's recent singles form is available
- • Bookmaker-implied probabilities show a ~7.3% combined margin and favor the away pair
- • No verifiable information on doubles partner form, H2H, injuries, or surface advantage