E. Khodzhaeva/E. Maklakova vs E. Adeshina/A. El Sayed
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find a small conservative edge on the home pair at 2.23; our model estimates a 48% win probability, producing ~7% EV at current prices, but uncertainty is high due to lack of data.
Highlights
- • Implied home probability (2.23) = ~44.8%; our estimate = 48%
- • Minimum fair odds required = 2.083; current odds 2.23 exceed that threshold
Pros
- + Positive expected value (~7% ROI) at available market price
- + Conservative probability estimate reduces chance of over-optimism given missing data
Cons
- - No match-specific information (form, injuries, surface, H2H) increases uncertainty
- - Edge is modest; doubles volatility and limited information raise downside risk
Details
We conservatively estimate the true win probability for E. Khodzhaeva/E. Maklakova at 48% (0.48) based on neutral assumptions given no form, surface, injury, or H2H data. The market currently prices the home side at 2.23 (implied probability ~44.8%), so the bookmaker price appears to offer value versus our conservative model. Using these inputs, the home side yields a positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.23 - 1 = 0.0704, or ~7.0% ROI). We prefer a conservative edge rather than aggressive adjustments given the lack of research data, and we set the minimum fair odds required at 1 / 0.48 = 2.083, which is below the available 2.23, justifying the selection.
Key factors
- • Market-implied probability (home 44.8%) vs our conservative estimate (48%)
- • No available match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H); conservatively adjusted probability
- • Doubles matches can be more volatile, so small edges warrant cautious staking