E. Micic/B. Thompson vs Kei Yau Cheung/J. Cvijanovic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend a bet: at a conservative 93% win probability the home price of 1.05 yields a small negative EV; required fair odds would be ≥1.075.
Highlights
- • Home implied probability far exceeds our conservative estimate-adjusted fair probability
- • Neither side shows positive expected value at current listed prices
Pros
- + Market consensus strongly favors the home pair, indicating likely win
- + If further information emerges that increases our estimated probability above 95.24%, the home line could become attractive
Cons
- - Current home odds (1.05) do not offer enough return to overcome model uncertainty
- - No external data available to confidently justify small positive edges against the market
Details
The market is pricing the home pair as an overwhelming favorite (1.05). With no external information available, we apply conservative assumptions: we estimate the home pair's true win probability at 93.0% (0.93). At the quoted home price of 1.05 this implies an expected value of 0.93 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.0235 (negative). The away price (10.0) would require an implausibly low true probability (~0.10) to offer value, and using a complementary probability (7.0%) produces an even larger negative EV. To justify a back on the home side we would need decimal odds of at least 1.075; current market (1.05) is too short relative to our conservative true probability, so we decline to recommend a wager.
Key factors
- • Extremely short market price for home (1.05) leaves little margin for error in our probability estimate
- • No external information (form, injuries, surface, H2H) — we use conservative probability assumptions
- • Away price (10.0) would require a much higher true upset probability than is reasonable given market skew