Highlights

• • Market-implied Edison probability: ~60.8% (1.645)
• • Our estimated Edison probability: 55% → required odds >1.818 for +EV

Pros

• + Edison is the bookmaker favorite, reflecting marginally better record
• + Both players have some experience on similar surfaces

Cons

• - Market price for Edison requires a >60.8% win rate to be profitable and we estimate ~55%
• - Small sample size and limited data increase outcome variance

Details

We compare the quoted moneyline (Edison 1.645, David 2.13) to our estimate of each player's true win probability based on available form and career records. Both players have limited match history and weak win rates (Edison ~3-6, David ~2-5) on similar surfaces, so we view Edison as a slight favorite but not overwhelmingly so. Edison’s market-implied probability at 1.645 is ~60.8%, while our estimated true probability is 55%, which implies the market is overvaluing him; at current prices the expected return is negative. There is no convincing edge for the underdog either — David’s implied chance at 2.13 (47.0%) is above his likely win rate — so neither side offers positive expected value at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have limited professional records and low overall win rates
• • Market implies Edison is a ~61% favorite; our model places him near 55%
• • No head-to-head data and similar surface profiles reduce informational edge