Highlights

• • Home (De Filippo) estimated win probability 44% vs implied break-even 40.16%
• • Positive expected value at current price: ~+0.096 per 1 unit stake

Pros

• + Current price (2.49) offers a buffer above the break-even threshold
• + Slightly better head-to-head form and clay match experience for De Filippo

Cons

• - Extremely limited match data increases variance and model risk
• - No direct H2H and little context on fitness or match conditions

Details

The market strongly favors Osti at 1.467 (implied ~68%), but the available player data shows both competitors are inexperienced with poor records on clay and small sample sizes. De Filippo has a slight edge in recorded results (1-3 vs 0-3) and has recent clay matches, so we estimate his true win probability materially higher than the bookmaker's implied underdog probability. At a modeled true probability of 44% for De Filippo, the current decimal price of 2.49 produces positive expectation (EV = 0.44*2.49 - 1 = +0.096), indicating value on the home moneyline. This view accounts for surface parity, marginal form advantage for De Filippo, and significant uncertainty due to very limited match history.

Key factors

• • Very small sample sizes for both players -> high uncertainty
• • De Filippo has slightly better recorded results (1-3) vs Osti (0-3)
• • Both players have clay experience; surface likely neutral between them
• • Market implies a large favorite; potential bookmaker overpricing of Osti