Highlights

• • Palosi is heavily favored in the market, likely over-stated given limited surface-specific evidence
• • Zanada's upset chance is plausibly above the implied 18.7%, giving positive EV at 5.36

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current price assuming conservative 20% true win probability
• + Market appears to overestimate the favorite in a low-information qualifier match on grass

Cons

• - Both players have limited documented grass experience; outcomes are inherently volatile
• - Small historical sample sizes mean our probability estimate carries substantial uncertainty

Details

We find value on Edoardo Zanada at 5.36. The market prices Stefan Palosi as a ~87.5% favorite which is extreme given the small-sample, mixed-quality data for both players and the grass surface (neither player has a documented strong grass profile in the provided research). Palosi has more matches and a modestly better career win-rate (25-23, ~52%), but that does not justify an 87% pre-match probability against Zanada (5-8, ~38%) in a Challenger qualifier on grass. Small sample sizes, surface unfamiliarity, and the high bookmaker margin on the favorite inflate the implied chance of Palosi; we estimate Zanada's true upset probability meaningfully above the implied 18.7%, creating positive expected value at 5.36.

Key factors

• • Bookmaker-implied probability for Palosi (~87.5%) is extreme given available records
• • Both players have limited/no documented grass results in the provided research (surface unknown advantage)
• • Small sample sizes and qualifier-level variability increase upset likelihood vs. headline win-rates