Highlights

• • Market is pricing the match as a toss-up at 1.877/1.877
• • Relative career win totals normalized to head-to-head favor Villoslada (~60.9%)

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price (1.877)
• + Clear, simple edge based on measurable career win differential

Cons

• - Both players have poor recent form and small sample sizes, increasing volatility
• - No head-to-head or injury info available; model relies on limited career records

Details

The market prices both players equally at decimal 1.877 (implied ~53.3% each). Using the available player data we normalize career win rates (Villoslada 14-37, Coman 9-42) to form a matchup probability: 14/(14+9) = 0.6087 (≈60.9%) for Villoslada. That method gives Villoslada a clear edge vs. the market-implied 53.3%, producing positive expected value at the quoted 1.877. We note both players have poor recent form and small sample sizes, so our estimate is conservative and driven by relative career success and surface experience (both primarily on clay), making Villoslada the value pick at current prices.

Key factors

• • Normalized career win rates favor Villoslada (14 vs 9 career wins)
• • Market implies ~53.3% but our estimate is ~60.9% for Villoslada
• • Both players primarily play on clay; Villoslada has slightly stronger recent results