Highlights

• • Edward: larger sample size and grass experience
• • Dominick: limited pro record and hard-court background

Pros

• + Edward is the stronger, more experienced player on the surface listed
• + Market rightly identifies Edward as heavy favorite

Cons

• - Current market odds (1.206) leave no positive EV versus our estimate
• - Small-sample uncertainty on Dominick means our probability has noticeable variance

Details

We compare the book price (Edward Winter 1.206 -> implied 82.9%) to our estimate based on the provided player profiles and surface information. Edward Winter has a substantially larger match sample (32-22 overall) and has experience on grass, while Dominick Mosejczuk has very limited professional data (5 matches, 1-3 record) and only recorded hard-court play in the research. That supports Edward as the clear favorite, but the bookmaker is already pricing him at ~82.9% implied. Given the limited additional edge in the available data (no H2H, limited form detail for Dominick, and no injury info), we estimate Edward's true win probability at ~80.0%, which is below the implied 82.9% — producing negative expected value at the current 1.206 price. Therefore we do not recommend wagering here unless better odds (>= 1.250) are offered.

Key factors

• • Edward Winter has substantially more pro matches and recorded grass-court experience
• • Dominick Mosejczuk has a very small sample size (5 matches) and appears to have played only hard courts in the research
• • Book price for Edward (1.206, implied 82.9%) is slightly richer than our estimated probability (80%), leaving no value