Highlights

• • Market implies ~69.8% for Edward (1.433); we estimate ~62%
• • Current price would need to be ≥1.613 to break even on our probability

Pros

• + Edward has more matches and a better win record overall
• + Both players have hard-court experience, favoring a more tested player (Edward)

Cons

• - Edward's recent results are mixed and not dominant in the very latest matches
• - Corey is a small-sample wildcard; uncertainty around true level increases variance

Details

The market prices Edward Winter at 1.433 (implied 69.8%). We estimate Edward's true win probability at ~62% based on his larger sample (32-22 career, 59% overall) and superior match exposure on hard courts versus Corey Craig's limited 6-match sample (2-4) and recent losses. Corey has little form and experience advantage, but Edward's career win rate and recent hard-court play do not justify the market implying almost 70%. At our estimated probability the home price of 1.433 produces a negative expectation (EV = 0.62 * 1.433 - 1 ≈ -0.112), so there is no value to back Edward at current odds; likewise the away price (2.73) would require an even lower true probability to be profitable and is not supported by the data.

Key factors

• • Edward Winter has a larger, stronger sample (32-22) and more hard-court experience
• • Corey Craig has very limited match history (6 matches) and poor recent form (2-4)
• • Market-implied probability (69.8%) exceeds our estimate (62%), removing betting value