Highlights

• • Gerasimov slightly favored by market (1.67) but below our required 1.818 for value
• • Kingsley would need ~2.222 to be +EV based on our 45% estimate; current 2.10 is too short

Pros

• + Clear, conservative probability estimate based on provided profiles and hard-court form
• + We explicitly compare market-implied probabilities to our estimated true probabilities

Cons

• - Limited data in the provided research (no H2H, limited match context) increases uncertainty
• - Small edges may exist off factors not included in the supplied sources

Details

We see nearly identical season records and recent hard-court results for both players, with Gerasimov (22-21) slightly favored in the market at 1.67. Given the provided profiles and form, we assign Gerasimov a modest edge (estimated true win probability 55%). That implies required decimal odds of ~1.818 to be +EV for Gerasimov, but the available price of 1.67 is too short (negative EV). Using the complementary probability for Kingsley (45%), his required price to be +EV would be ~2.222; the available 2.10 is also too short. With no injury or head-to-head data to justify shifting probabilities materially, neither side offers positive expected value at the current market prices.

Key factors

• • Very similar season records and recent form on hard courts
• • Market favors Gerasimov at 1.67 but our model gives him only a moderate 55% chance
• • No injury flags or H2H data in the provided research to justify diverging from parity