Egor Gerasimov vs Etienne Donnet

Highlights

• • Donnet favored by market (1.58) with implied ≈63.3%
• • Our adjusted estimate (62%) produces a slight negative EV at current favorite price

Pros

• + Clear, conservative edge in Donnet's historical win rate and hard-court experience
• + Market margin is small — downside is limited but not profitable

Cons

• - No clear info suggesting an upset-level edge for Gerasimov to justify backing at 2.25
• - Small-sample and challenger-level variance means estimates carry uncertainty

Details

We assess Etienne Donnet as the stronger favorite based on a superior 30-16 (≈65%) recent career win rate versus Egor Gerasimov's 22-21 (≈51%) and both players having recent hard-court Challenger activity. The market prices Donnet at 1.58 (implied ≈63.3%) and Gerasimov at 2.25 (implied ≈44.4%). After adjusting for surface continuity, recent form parity at the Challenger level, and the small-sample nature of both players' records, we estimate Donnet's true win probability at 62.0% (0.620). At the available favorite price of 1.58 this produces a small negative expected return (EV = 0.62 * 1.58 - 1 ≈ -0.020). The underdog price on Gerasimov (2.25) would only be a value if his true win chance were meaningfully above 44.4%; given the comparative records and no clear injury or matchup edge in the research, we do not have conviction to raise our Gerasimov probability above that threshold. Therefore no side offers positive expected value at current widely-available prices.

Key factors

• • Donnet has a stronger career win rate (30-16 vs 22-21) and plays well on hard
• • Both players recently competed at the Cassis Challenger on hard courts — form is mixed for each
• • Market implied probability (1.58 -> ~63.3%) is slightly above our adjusted estimate (62%), leaving no value