Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Gerasimov (1.10) but his career record does not justify a ~91% chance.
• • Covato priced at 6.50 offers >40% ROI if our 22% probability is accurate.

Pros

• + Clear numerical value vs implied market probability
• + Covato has hard-court match exposure and recent Challenger play

Cons

• - Underdog outcome is higher variance — single-match tennis volatility is significant
• - Data sample and recent form are limited; outcomes sensitive to on-the-day health and conditions

Details

We see an extreme market price for Gerasimov (1.10, implied ~90.9%) that is not supported by the recent career records and match data. Gerasimov is the stronger player on paper (22-21 across 43 matches), but that record does not justify a >90% win probability versus an opponent who has played mainly on clay/hard and has 13-25 on the season. Covato has demonstrated hard-court exposure and recent Challenger appearances, and the market is compressing his chance to ~15.4% (6.50). We estimate Covato's true chance closer to 22% based on relative records, surface overlap, and the fact both players showed recent Challenger-level results rather than dominant form — giving value on the away moneyline at available 6.50. At our estimate (p=0.22) the expected value is +0.43 per unit (EV = 0.22*6.5 - 1), so betting Covato is positive-expected-value versus the quoted market.

Key factors

• • Market implies Gerasimov ~90.9% which is likely overstated given his 22-21 record
• • Covato has hard-court experience and recent Challenger-level play, supporting a >15% true win chance
• • Current price 6.50 for the away is high enough that even a modest true probability (≈22%) yields positive EV