Ekaterina Maklakova vs Louna Zoppas

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Maklakova (~82%) is not supported by the provided data
• • Zoppas at 3.8 implies notable upside versus our conservative 47% win probability

Pros

• + Large differential between market price and our estimated true probability
• + Both players' records and recent form give no clear reason to heavily favor the home player

Cons

• - Limited data and no head-to-head info increase uncertainty around our probability estimate
• - If there are unreported local/seed/injury factors the market price could be justified

Details

We find clear value on Louna Zoppas at current decimal odds (3.8). The market prices Ekaterina Maklakova extremely short (1.217, implied ~82%), but the research shows both players have nearly identical profiles (10-21 career records, similar surface experience and poor recent form). There is no substantive evidence in the provided data to justify an 82% chance for Maklakova. We conservatively estimate Zoppas's true win probability at 47% (Maklakova ~53%), which makes 3.8 materially overpriced. At our estimate the fair odds for Zoppas would be about 2.128 (1 / 0.47); the current price of 3.8 gives a large positive expected value.

Key factors

• • Both players show virtually identical career records (10-21) and similar recent form in the provided data
• • No clear surface or injury advantage is present in the research to justify the heavy market favoritism toward the home player
• • Market implied probability for Maklakova (~82%) is inconsistent with the available player profiles, creating value in the underdog price