Ekaterina Maklakova vs Saoirse Breen
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Saoirse Breen at 2.70 because the market overprices the home player despite nearly identical profiles; our conservative true probability (42%) yields a positive EV (~13.4%).
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for away (37.0%) is below our estimated 42%
- • Required fair odds (2.381) are well below available 2.70 price
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price
- + Both players' records/form do not justify the heavy market lean to the home player
Cons
- - Overall sample sizes and data are limited; estimates carry uncertainty
- - Both players have recent losses—match could be swingy and higher variance
Details
We believe the market overstates Maklakova's edge. The current market implies ~70.9% for Maklakova (1/1.41) and ~37.0% for Breen (1/2.7). Research shows both players have nearly identical career records (10-21), similar surface history (clay/hard) and comparable recent form (mostly losses), so a near-even baseline is more realistic than the large market gap. We conservatively estimate Breen's true win probability at 42.0%. At the available decimal price of 2.70 this yields EV = 0.42 * 2.70 - 1 = 0.134 (13.4% ROI per unit). Because the required fair odds for our probability are 1 / 0.42 = 2.381 and the market offers 2.70, we identify value on the away side. We use the quoted 2.70 price for EV calculations.
Key factors
- • Both players have identical career records (10-21) and similar surface experience
- • Recent form for both is poor with several recent losses—no clear edge from form
- • Market implies a large gap favoring the home player that is not supported by the available profiles
- • No head-to-head or clear surface advantage was present in the research