Ekaterina Yashina vs Alana Subasic
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small value on Ekaterina Yashina at 2.18 based on near-parity in the provided profiles — estimated true win chance ~48% yields ~4.6% EV; confidence is limited.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for away is ~61.5%; our estimate for home is 48%
- • Home price 2.18 crosses our min required odds (2.083), producing a small positive EV
Pros
- + Current home odds (2.18) offer a measurable positive expectancy versus our probability model
- + Both players' profiles give no clear edge to the market favorite, supporting the value play
Cons
- - Edge is small (EV ~4.6%) and sensitive to small changes in true probability
- - Research is sparse (no H2H, limited form context), reducing confidence in the probability estimate
Details
We see near-identical career records and limited differentiators in the provided profiles (both 10-21, similar surfaces and recent losses), so the match looks closer to a coin flip than the market-priced 61.5% for the away. Market-implied probabilities: Away 1.625 -> ~61.5%, Home 2.18 -> ~45.9%. Based on the parity in the research and absence of injury or surface advantage, we estimate the true probability for Ekaterina Yashina (home) at 48%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~2.083; the available price of 2.18 offers positive expected value (EV = 0.48 * 2.18 - 1 ≈ 0.046), a ~4.6% ROI on a single stake. The edge is small and confidence is limited by sparse data and no head-to-head or tournament-form detail, so this is a low-margin value play rather than a strong pick.
Key factors
- • Both players show nearly identical career records and surfaces in the provided data (10-21)
- • Market heavily favors the away (1.625) despite limited evidence for a clear advantage
- • Available home price (2.18) is slightly above our fair price (2.083) creating a small positive EV