Ekaterina Yashina vs Defne Cirpanli

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Yashina (1.645) is ~60.8%
• • Our estimated chance for Yashina is ~52%, requiring ~1.923 to be +EV

Pros

• + We used objective, directly provided career and recent-form indicators to estimate probability
• + Clear numeric gap between market-implied probability and our estimate simplifies the decision

Cons

• - Limited detail in the provided research (no H2H, rankings, or injury specifics) increases uncertainty
• - Both players' similar profiles mean small unobserved factors could swing the outcome

Details

We compared the market prices to an evidence-based assessment. Both Ekaterina Yashina and Defne Cirpanli show nearly identical career snapshots in the provided data (each 10-21 overall, surfaces: clay and hard) and both have poor recent form with losses in recent challenger-level events. The market makes Yashina the clear favorite at decimal 1.645 (implied win probability ~60.8%). Given the symmetry of their records, lack of head-to-head or clear surface/fitness advantage in the provided research, and both showing recent losses, we estimate Yashina's true win probability at ~52%. That is well below the market-implied ~60.8%, so the current favorite price does not offer value. To obtain positive EV backing Yashina the price would need to be ~1.923 or higher; the current 1.645 yields a negative expected value. Therefore we decline to recommend a side because no positive expected value exists at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical overall records in the provided data (10-21), suggesting parity
• • Recent form shown in the research is poor for both (multiple recent losses at challenger events)
• • Market price (Yashina 1.645) implies ~60.8% which exceeds our estimated true probability (~52%)