Highlights

• • Identical performance data for both players suggests near 50/50 match-up
• • Current home price (2.35) exceeds our fair price (~2.083), producing +12.8% EV

Pros

• + Decent margin between fair price and offered odds (2.083 vs 2.35)
• + No evidence in provided research justifying heavy market favoritism toward Garland

Cons

• - Edge is modest and based on parity; limited data increases variance
• - No H2H, surface match-up specifics, or injury information in the research to strengthen the call

Details

We find value on the home side (Ekaterina Reyngold). The available research shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players with no clear performance edge to justify Joanna Garland being a strong favorite at 1.613. The market-implied probability for Garland (≈61.9%) appears overstated given the parity in the provided data. We therefore estimate a near-even true win probability tilted slightly toward Reyngold (48%) because there is no evidence in the research to support a >60% chance for Garland. At that estimated probability the fair decimal price for Reyngold is ~2.083; the offered 2.35 represents positive expected value (EV = 0.48*2.35 - 1 = +0.128 or +12.8% ROI). We used the current quoted home price (2.35) for the EV calculation and compared it to our assessed true probability to conclude there is a measurable value opportunity. Key uncertainties: small sample sizes, lack of head-to-head or injury detail, and both players' similar win-loss records, so our edge is modest and relies on the market overpricing Garland.

Key factors

• • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results in the provided data
• • Market prices favor the away player strongly despite no supporting evidence in the research
• • Small-sample data and lack of H2H/injury information increase uncertainty but do not justify the favorite's price