Highlights

• • Book implied home probability ~78.7% vs our ≈35% estimate for Milic
• • Away implied probability ~29.8% vs our ≈65% estimate — substantial edge

Pros

• + Large gap between market-implied and our estimated probabilities => high EV
• + Recommendation grounded in concrete recorded form (career record and recent losses)

Cons

• - Very limited data provided on the opponent (Lazarenko) — uncertainty remains
• - No surface, injury, or head-to-head detail provided to further refine the estimate

Details

We find clear value on the away side (Masha Lazarenko) because the market is pricing Ela Nala Milic at decimal 1.27 (implied win probability ~78.7%), which is difficult to reconcile with Milic's documented form: a 10-21 career record (31 matches, win rate ~32.3%) and recent losses in 2025. Using Milic's weak win rate and recent form as the primary evidence, we estimate Milic's true match win probability is substantially lower than the market implies (we estimate Milic ~35% -> Lazarenko ~65%). At the current away price 3.36 (implied ~29.8%), that yields a large positive expected value (EV = 0.65 * 3.36 - 1 = 1.184). Even using conservative adjustments from the limited data available, the away price offers significant value vs. our estimated true probability.

Key factors

• • Ela Nala Milic career record 10-21 (32.3% win rate) suggests lower baseline win probability
• • Recent 2025 results show multiple losses — form trending down
• • Market heavily favors Milic (1.27), creating a high-priced away line (3.36) that implies a much lower probability than our estimate