Highlights

• • Market implies ~36% for the away at 2.76
• • We estimate the away's true chance near 45%, producing ~24% ROI

Pros

• + Strong positive expected value at current odds
• + Decision grounded on symmetric player data from the Research

Cons

• - Research lacks detailed surface, recent-match context, and H2H, increasing uncertainty
• - If there is an unreported advantage (injury/home conditions), the estimate could be wrong

Details

We see nearly identical career records and recent-form snippets for both players, with no clear injury or surface advantage noted in the provided Research. The market prices Ela Nala Milic at 1.41 (implied ~70.9%) while Noemi Maines is 2.76 (implied ~36.2%). Given the symmetric data and lack of a clear edge for the listed favorite, we estimate the true win probability is much closer to a 55/45 split in favour of the home player rather than the market's ~71/29 split. That implies Noemi Maines' fair probability (~45%) is substantially higher than the bookmakers' implied 36.2%, producing positive expected value at the current away price of 2.76. We therefore recommend backing the away player as a value play.

Key factors

• • Provided profiles show nearly identical career records and recent-form data for both players
• • No clear injury, surface, or head-to-head edge identified in the Research
• • Market greatly favours the home player (1.41) creating a likely overlay on the underdog (2.76)