Highlights

• • Skoog's career win rate and vast experience materially favor her.
• • Current away price (4.31) implies only ~23% win chance, far below our ~62% estimate.

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between our estimated probability and the market price—strong theoretical edge.
• + Experience and historical win-rate advantage suggest greater consistency under pressure.

Cons

• - Recent-match snippets in the provided data show both players with recent losses, increasing short-term noise.
• - Limited direct matchup, surface and specific event form details are incomplete—some uncertainty remains.

Details

We see a clear mismatch between the market price and the players' demonstrated career-level performance. Eleejah Inisan has a limited record (10-21) and a low win rate across her 31 pro matches, while Isabel Skoog has a deep professional history (559-507) with a substantially higher career win rate and far greater experience. Translating the career win rates into a simple comparative probability gives Skoog a markedly better chance than the market-implied 23.2% (away at 4.31). Using a conservative blended estimate that accounts for recent noisy results but favors Skoog's experience, we estimate Skoog's true win probability at 62.0%. At that probability, the fair decimal price is ~1.613, so the available 4.31 sticker offers very large positive edge. We recommend backing Isabel Skoog because the current price represents significant value versus our estimate.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate differential: Skoog (≈52.5%) vs Inisan (≈32.3%)
• • Experience advantage: Skoog has 1066 matches vs Inisan's 31
• • Market-implied probability (away 4.31 → 23.2%) appears inconsistent with form and sample