Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~84.6% is not supported by the provided player records
• • At our 48% estimate, the away odds 4.21 yield ~102% expected ROI

Pros

• + Large margin between market price and our estimated fair odds
• + Decision based on direct parity in provided player data (records, surfaces)

Cons

• - Limited dataset and no H2H or venue-specific details in the provided research
• - High variance outcome — the recommendation relies on a substantial divergence from market pricing

Details

We find clear value on Lucia Llinares Domingo (away). The published profiles show both players with virtually identical career span, surfaces and a 10-21 record, with no clear recent-form or H2H advantage in the research provided. The market is pricing the home (Eleejah Inisan) at 1.183 (implied ~84.6%), which is extreme relative to the information available. We estimate the true win probability for the away player at 48% based on parity of records and lack of differentiating factors, implying fair odds of ~2.083. The current away price of 4.21 is materially higher than that fair price, producing EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.48 * 4.21 - 1 = 1.0208 (≈102% ROI per unit). Because the bookmaker appears to be overpricing the home favourite far beyond what the available player data justifies, we recommend taking the away side at current market odds.

Key factors

• • Both players have identical career records in the provided research (10-21), indicating parity
• • No differentiating recent-form, surface or injury information in the materials supplied
• • Market-implied probabilities (home ~84.6%) are extreme compared to available evidence, suggesting mispricing