Highlights

• • Market heavily favors Grekul despite a 10-21 record and recent losses
• • At 2.62, the away side offers positive expected value versus our conservative probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear numeric edge: estimated probability (42%) > market-implied (38.2%)
• + Simple, conservative model driven by documented poor form of the favorite

Cons

• - No direct data on Eleni Tsetsou in the provided research increases uncertainty
• - Surface/venue and potential injuries or withdrawals not specified in the research

Details

We find value on the away side (Eleni Tsetsou) because the market is pricing Elena Grekul as a strong favorite (1.442 ⇒ implied ~69.4%) despite a weak documented record for Grekul (10-21 career, recent string of losses). Using Grekul's available form data as the primary input and accounting for the absence of positive form indicators, we estimate Grekul's true match win probability is well below the market-implied level; that implies Tsetsou's true chance is materially higher than the market-implied 38.2% (2.62). We conservatively estimate Tsetsou's true win probability at 42%, which yields a positive expected value at the current away price (2.62). Key uncertainties include missing specific data on Tsetsou and the match surface/conditions, so we price in conservatism when estimating probabilities.

Key factors

• • Elena Grekul's documented career record is poor (10-21) with recent losses, indicating weak form
• • Market implies Grekul ~69% winner (1.442) while available form data does not support that level
• • No recent/public data found for Eleni Tsetsou in the research, increasing uncertainty but creating possible market mispricing