Elena Grekul vs Valeriia Artemeva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find small positive value on Valeriia Artemeva at 1.625 given her much larger career record and surface experience; implied market odds understate her win likelihood by our estimate.
Highlights
- • Artemeva estimated true win probability 64% vs market 61.5%
- • Required fair odds 1.563; current price 1.625 gives ~4% ROI
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for Artemeva
- + Current price is marginally more generous than our fair estimate
Cons
- - Recent results for both players in the research show losses, which reduces short-term certainty
- - Edge is modest (EV ~4%), sensitive to small estimation errors
Details
We view Valeriia Artemeva as the likely favorite based on a large career sample (559-507) and broad surface experience versus Elena Grekul's limited record (10-21). The market currently prices Artemeva at 1.625 (implied 61.5%). Given Artemeva's clear experience edge, more reliable win rate, and Grekul's small-sample volatility, we estimate Artemeva's true win probability higher than the market at 64%. At that probability the fair decimal price is ~1.563; the current 1.625 therefore offers positive expected value. We also note both players show recent losses in the provided snippets, which moderates the edge, but does not erase Artemeva's structural advantage. No injuries or surface-specific disadvantages are reported in the research, so our model relies on career records, surface exposure, and recent form data provided.
Key factors
- • Large experience and superior career win rate for Artemeva (559-507) versus Grekul (10-21)
- • Both players show recent losses, reducing short-term confidence but favoring the more consistent player
- • Market-implied probability (61.5%) is below our estimated true probability (64%), creating small edge