Highlights

• • Book prices make Anghel a massive underdog (12.5% implied) despite similar profiles
• • Our estimate (45%) implies a very large positive EV at the 8.00 price

Pros

• + Huge edge vs market price — high theoretical ROI
• + No evidence in the provided research to justify the heavy favorite price

Cons

• - Market price may reflect outside information not provided here (e.g., last-minute withdrawal, fitness) which would invalidate the edge
• - Extreme mispricings can indicate hidden risks; variance is high

Details

We compare the market-implied probabilities to our assessment. The book lists Elena Malygina at 1.07 (implied ~93.46%) and Alexandra Irina Anghel at 8.00 (implied 12.50%). The research shows near-identical career summaries and recent form for both players with no clear injury or surface edge; there is no rationale in the data to justify a ~93% chance for the home player. We estimate Anghel's true win probability at 45%; at the quoted 8.00 decimal this yields EV = 0.45 * 8.00 - 1 = +2.60 (260% ROI per unit). To be +EV on Anghel you only need a true probability >12.5% (market price), and our read of the information strongly suggests she is far better than that. Therefore Anghel represents a large value opportunity vs the heavily inflated favorite.

Key factors

• • Market implies Anghel has only 12.5% shot (8.00) while the home is priced as a near-lock (1.07)
• • Research shows virtually identical career records and recent form for both players — no clear edge for the favorite
• • No injury or surface advantage present in the provided data to justify heavy favoritism