Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies only ~10.5% for the away despite the home player having a poor 10-21 record
• • At our 18% estimate, the away line (9.5) offers substantial positive EV

Pros

• + Large gap between implied and our estimated probability creates strong theoretical value
• + Even conservative increases in Vilar's win probability above ~10.5% make the away bet profitable

Cons

• - No direct data on Gabriela Vilar provided — outcome uncertainty is high
• - Malygina could still be the superior matchup despite poor overall record; limited sample and context make estimates noisy

Details

We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to our estimate. The market prices Elena Malygina at 1.05 (implied win ~95.24%) and Gabriela Vilar at 9.5 (implied win ~10.53%). Based on the available information, Malygina's career record (10-21 across 31 matches) and poor recent run indicate she is very unlikely to be a 95% favorite in a fair match. We estimate Vilar's true chance at 18% (0.18) given Malygina's weak overall form, surface experience on clay/hard for Malygina but no dominant trends in the research, and the high likelihood this market is skewed or thin. At 9.5 decimal odds for the away side, that produces positive expected value (EV = 0.18 * 9.5 - 1 = +0.71), meaning the quoted price offers substantial value versus our assessment of true probability. We acknowledge high uncertainty because we have no direct data on Vilar, but even a conservative estimate well above the 10.53% implied by 9.5 yields value on the away moneyline.

Key factors

• • Elena Malygina's career record is 10-21 (weak historical win rate)
• • Recent form shows multiple losses and no clear momentum
• • Market odds imply an extreme favoritism (95% for home) that is inconsistent with Malygina's record
• • No performance data provided for Gabriela Vilar (increases uncertainty and potential market mispricing)
• • Surface experience for Malygina includes clay and hard but no dominant surface edge shown