Elena Milovanovic vs Summer Yardley
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market odds are highly distorted and inconsistent with on-court evidence; no value exists at the quoted prices, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Book implies a 98.5% chance for Milovanovic, which conflicts with available performance data
- • Fair odds estimate for Milovanovic ~1.818; current price is far too short
Pros
- + Careful avoidance of betting into an obvious market anomaly
- + Clear threshold provided for when value would exist (decimal ≥ 1.818)
Cons
- - If the market correction were legitimate (e.g., confirmed injury information), opportunity could be missed
- - No immediate actionable bet — requires patience for corrected prices
Details
We view the posted prices as a clear market anomaly and decline to recommend a side. The book price for Elena Milovanovic (1.015) implies an astronomical 98.5% win probability, which is inconsistent with the on-paper data: both players have nearly identical career records (Milovanovic 10-21, Yardley 10-22), similar surface experience (clay/hard) and comparable recent form. We estimate Elena's true win probability at ~55% given parity in form and experience, which corresponds to fair odds ≈1.818. At the current favorite price (1.015) EV = 0.55*1.015 - 1 = -0.442, so there is no value on the favorite. The away price (43.55) would mathematically offer enormous positive EV versus any reasonable true probability, but that price is almost certainly a quoting error/outlier and therefore not a tradable value opportunity in practical terms. We therefore recommend no bet and advise waiting for corrected, widely-available market prices.
Key factors
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and surface experience
- • Recent form is poor and similar for both — no clear performance edge
- • Market prices (1.015 / 43.55) appear to be an outlier or quoting error