Highlights

• • Market overprices Emiliana relative to Elena's career win-rate
• • Home price 2.25 requires only ~44.4% true chance to break even; our model gives ~52.5%

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available odds (2.25)
• + Simple, conservative model anchored to long-term career win-rate

Cons

• - Research is limited and duplicated; few match-specific form details
• - Estimations rely on career aggregate data rather than head-to-head or event-specific performance

Details

We see the market prices Emiliana as a ~60.1% favorite (1.662) while Elena is offered at 2.25 (implied 44.4%). Using Elena's career-wide win rate (559/1066 ≈ 52.5%) as a baseline for her true baseline level, and given the research shows broadly similar career profiles with no clear injury or surface advantage for the favorite, we estimate Elena's true chance here is materially higher than the market-implied 44.4%. At our estimated probability (52.5%) the home price 2.25 offers positive expectation (EV ≈ +0.181 per unit). The edge arises because the market appears to overprice Emiliana relative to Elena's long-term win rate and available form data. We acknowledge the research is limited and somewhat duplicated, so we conservatively keep the probability only modestly above 50%.

Key factors

• • Elena's career win-rate is ~52.5%, suggesting a baseline >50% chance
• • Market-implied probability for Elena (44.4%) is lower than her career win-rate, creating potential value
• • Research provides no clear injury/surface advantage for Emiliana to justify market favoritism