Highlights

• • Market implies ~77.8% for Bertea; we estimate ~70%
• • Breakeven odds needed ~1.429; current 1.285 is too short

Pros

• + Clear experience and win-rate edge for Bertea
• + Likely surface/venue familiarity favors the more seasoned player

Cons

• - Craciun is younger and variability in ITF matches can produce upsets
• - Current market price is too short to yield positive EV for our estimate

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for the home favorite (1.285 => ~77.8%) to our estimated true probability of a Bertea win (~70%). Bertea has a large experience advantage and a markedly stronger career win rate versus Craciun's limited sample and lower win percentage, and the match is likely on a familiar regional surface which favors the more experienced player. However, 70% does not justify backing Bertea at 1.285 because the implied price requires ~77.8% win likelihood to offer positive value. To reach positive EV we would need at least ~1.429 on Bertea; at the current 1.285 quote the ROI is about -10% which removes value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Large experience and career win-rate advantage for Bertea
• • Craciun has small sample size and lower overall win percentage
• • Market-implied probability (77.8%) exceeds our estimate (70%), removing value