Highlights

• • Market-implied probability: ~79.4% vs our 83% estimate
• • Estimated EV ≈ 4.4% on a 1.259 price for the home side

Pros

• + Significant experience and larger career sample size supporting reliability
• + Current odds provide a measurable positive edge

Cons

• - Edge is modest and sensitive to short-term form or unknown surface factors
• - Primorac's young profile could be improving quickly despite overall record

Details

We find value on the home side (Elena Ruxandra Bertea). The book market price of 1.259 implies an implied win probability of ~79.4%, while our assessment of Bertea's true chance is higher at 83%. This gap is driven by a large experience and match-volume advantage (559-507 career record across many surfaces) versus Primorac's limited pro sample and lower win rate (10-21). Both players show recent losses, but Bertea's depth of experience and much larger historical sample give us confidence she is slightly underpriced here. At the quoted decimal price the expected value is small but positive (≈4.4% ROI). We note uncertainty around surface and short-term form, so the edge is modest.

Key factors

• • Large experience and match volume advantage for Bertea (559-507 career record)
• • Primorac has limited pro matches and lower career win rate (10-21)
• • Market-implied probability (79.4%) is slightly below our 83% true-probability estimate
• • Both players have recent losses, increasing short-term form uncertainty