Highlights

• • Market implies Skoog ~80% win chance; we estimate closer to 70%
• • Home at 3.74 offers positive EV (≈+12.2% per unit) versus our model

Pros

• + Clear price edge: market odds for Giessler are longer than our fair odds
• + Skoog's recent results suggest vulnerability that the market may be ignoring

Cons

• - Very limited direct information on Giessler makes our probability estimate uncertain
• - Large favorite bias in market can be driven by factors (ranking, fitness) not present in the provided data

Details

Market prices make Isabel Skoog a heavy favorite at decimal 1.246 (implied ~80%). We believe that price overstates her win probability given the available information: her long career win rate (~52% overall) and recent results showing losses suggest form and/or durability concerns heading into this match. With no positive data on Elena Giovanna Giessler provided, the only defensible approach is to compare the market-implied probability to a conservative true estimate. We estimate Giessler's true chance at roughly 30% (Skoog ~70%). At that probability the required fair odds for Giessler are ~3.333; the market is offering 3.74, producing a positive expected value for a back of the home underdog. Therefore we recommend taking the home moneyline only because EV > 0 at the quoted price of 3.74. Odds used for EV: 3.74.

Key factors

• • Skoog priced as ~80% favorite by the market (decimal 1.246)
• • Skoog has a long career with overall ~52% win rate but recent losses indicate form decline
• • Underdog Giessler offered 3.74 which exceeds our fair threshold of ~3.333 for a 30% win probability