Highlights

• • Elena's extensive match experience and higher career win rate
• • Bookmakers currently over-favor Marianne, creating value on Elena

Pros

• + Clear experience and historical performance advantage
• + Current odds (1.943) exceed our fair-price threshold (min required 1.724)

Cons

• - Recent-match lines for both players show losses; short-term form is not strong
• - No head-to-head or explicit injury information provided; some uncertainty remains

Details

We find value backing Elena Korokozidi at the current price (1.943). The market implies Elena at ~51.5% (1/1.943) while Marianne Argyrokastriti is favored at ~56.1% (1/1.781). From the supplied profiles Elena has a long, positive career record (559-507 across 1066 matches) and documented experience on multiple surfaces including Hard and Clay; Marianne's record is 10-21 across 31 matches. Both show recent losses in the provided recent-match lines, so form is not a clear differentiator, but the durability and experience gap strongly favor Elena. We estimate Elena's true win probability at 58%, which produces a positive expected value vs the current decimal price. Given the limited sample for Marianne and the clear career advantage for Elena, the market appears to be mispricing Elena as an underdog relative to her likely win chance.

Key factors

• • Career win-rate advantage: Elena 559-507 (~52%) vs Marianne 10-21 (~32%)
• • Huge experience gap: Elena 1066 matches vs Marianne 31 matches
• • Both have recent losses in the provided results, reducing form edge for the favorite
• • Surface exposure: Elena shown to have played Hard and Clay (fits tournament conditions)
• • Market-implied probability favors Marianne, creating value opportunity on Elena