Elena Micic vs Taylah Preston
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on Elena Micic at 3.00 because the market overprices Taylah Preston given the near-identical profiles; Micic's estimated true win probability (40%) implies a fair price of 2.50, making 3.00 +EV.
Highlights
- • Both players have identical listed records and recent losses in the research
- • Market implied probability for Preston appears unsupported by the available data
Pros
- + Clear positive EV at current odds (20% expected ROI per unit staked)
- + No research evidence of a major form or injury advantage for the favorite
Cons
- - Research dataset is limited and truncated—uncertainty around unseen factors (fitness, matchup, conditions) remains high
- - Tennis matches are high-variance; favorites can still be correct despite market inefficiency
Details
We view the current market as overstating Taylah Preston's edge. The provided profiles show essentially identical career spans, surface experience (clay/hard), season records (10-21) and recent form (both with recent losses), with no clear injury or matchup advantage for Preston. The market-implied probability for Preston at 1.35 is ~74% while Micic at 3.00 implies ~33.3%. Given the near-identical data and lack of evidence supporting such a large gap, we estimate Elena Micic's true win probability at 40%. At that probability the fair decimal price is 2.50; the offered 3.00 therefore offers value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.40 * 3.00 - 1 = 0.20 (20% expected ROI). We use the current moneyline 3.00 for the EV calculation.
Key factors
- • Both players show essentially identical season records (10-21) and recent form in the supplied data
- • No injuries, surface advantages, or head-to-head differences are indicated in the research
- • Market implies a large gap (Preston ~74% vs Micic ~33%) that is not supported by the available profiles