Elena Milovanovic vs Elza Tomase
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see small value on Elena Milovanovic at 1.98 because the market overprices Elza Tomase relative to near-identical player profiles; estimated true win chance for Milovanovic ~52% yields ~3% ROI.
Highlights
- • Current market implies Tomase ~58% while data suggests closer to even matchup
- • Milovanovic at 1.98 crosses our minimum required odds (1.923) for positive EV
Pros
- + Edges exists because market skew favors away player without clear justification
- + Odds (1.98) are above our breakeven threshold for the estimated probability
Cons
- - Estimated edge is small and sensitive to probability assumptions
- - Research data is limited and offers no head-to-head or injury details
Details
The market prices Elza Tomase as a clear favorite (implied ~58%) while Elena Milovanovic is offered at 1.98 (implied ~50.5%). Our review of the available player profiles shows nearly identical career records, surfaces played, and recent form with no clear advantage for Tomase that would justify a ~8-9% market gap between the two. Given symmetrical indicators (records around 10-21/10-22, both active on clay/hard, similar recent results), we assess the matchup as closer to even and assign a modest edge to Milovanovic based on parity and the market skew toward the away player. Using an estimated true win probability for Milovanovic of 52.0% versus the offered 1.98, the expected value per unit staked is positive (EV = 0.52*1.98 - 1 ≈ 0.03). This represents a small but real value opportunity because the implied probability at 1.98 is below our estimated true probability. We note uncertainty due to limited differential data and potential unreported factors, so the edge is modest.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors away at 1.714 despite similar player profiles
- • Both players have nearly identical career records and recent results
- • Available data shows no clear surface or form advantage for the away player