Elena Milovanovic vs Teresa Franco Dias

Highlights

• • Market-implied away chance (33.3%) is well below our 45% estimate
• • Break-even odds for the away are ~2.222; current price 3.00 offers value

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the quoted away price
• + Both players have similar form, reducing likelihood the market edge is justified

Cons

• - Limited data separation and identical recent results increase uncertainty
• - No head-to-head or surface/venue details to confidently widen the gap

Details

We compare the market prices to our estimated win probabilities based solely on the provided player profiles. The market implies Elena Milovanovic (home) has a 74.6% win chance (1/1.34) while Teresa Franco Dias (away) is priced at a 33.3% chance (1/3.0). The head-to-head and recent-form data in the research show nearly identical career records (Milovanovic 10-21, Dias 10-22) and matching recent results, so there is minimal performance separation. We assign a modest edge to the nominal home designation but view the true probabilities as much closer than the market suggests — we estimate Teresa’s true win probability at 45% (Elena 55%). At the quoted away price (3.00) this generates positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 3.00 - 1 = 0.35 (35% ROI). The break-even decimal odds for the away side would be 2.222 (1/0.45); the market price 3.00 comfortably exceeds that threshold, presenting value. Key uncertainties include small overall sample sizes, mirrored recent form for both players, and lack of additional match/context data, so we size the confidence accordingly.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records and recent results for both players
• • Market heavily favors home (1.34) despite little separation in form
• • No injuries or differentiating context provided; small-sample uncertainty