Highlights

• • Market overprices the away favorite relative to available research
• • Home at 2.14 yields ~2.7% ROI on our probability estimate

Pros

• + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
• + Decision supported by lack of differentiating information in the research

Cons

• - Very limited and noisy data in the supplied research increases uncertainty
• - Small EV — sensitive to small errors in our probability estimate

Details

We find value backing the home underdog Elena Ruxandra Bertea at 2.14. The supplied profiles show effectively identical career records and no clear edge for Lina Gjorcheska in the research, yet the market prices Gjorcheska at implied ~60.8%. With no decisive form, surface, injury or H2H information in the research to justify such a large gap, we estimate a near-even true chance slightly favoring Gjorcheska but much closer than the market suggests. Using an estimated true probability of 48.0% for Bertea, the current home price (2.14) offers positive expected value (EV = 0.027), while the favored away price (1.645) is too short relative to our estimate.

Key factors

• • Research shows nearly identical career records and no clear edge for either player
• • Market-implied probability for the away player (~60.8%) appears overstated given provided data
• • No injury, surface advantage or recent-form differentiation present in the supplied research