Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies only ~26% for away; we estimate ~45%
• • Calculated EV at current odds is large (~0.724 per unit staked)

Pros

• + Strong positive EV at current market price
• + Player profiles provided show parity, arguing against heavy home favoritism

Cons

• - Available data is limited and identical for both players, increasing uncertainty
• - No H2H, surface specifics, or injury details provided to refine the model

Details

We view the market as overstating the home advantage. The bookmaker decimal prices imply a home win probability of ~80.1% (1/1.248) and an away win probability of ~26.1% (1/3.83). The available player data shows near-identical career records and recent form for both players with no clear edge for the home player; given that parity we estimate a fair probability closer to 45% for the away player. At our estimated true probability (45%) the away price of 3.83 delivers significant positive expected value (EV = 0.45 * 3.83 - 1 ≈ 0.724). The primary drivers are matched career records/recent results and the absence of H2H or injury information that would justify the heavy market skew toward the home side.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probabilities: home ~80.1%, away ~26.1%
• • Provided profiles show nearly identical career records and recent form
• • No H2H, injury, or surface edge reported to justify large home favoritism