Eleonora Toneva vs Darya Velikova

Highlights

• • Velikova's historical win rate (~32%) is the primary driver of our model
• • Book market (~50/50) appears to underprice the home player, creating value at 1.87

Pros

• + Clear positive EV versus current market price (≈+26.6% ROI on model)
• + Simple, conservative anchor: uses Velikova's documented win rate rather than optimistic short-term signals

Cons

• - We lack direct data on Eleonora Toneva (surface form, injuries, H2H), which increases uncertainty
• - Small-sample variability and potential recent performance changes for either player could erode value

Details

We benchmark Darya Velikova's measurable form: 10 wins in 31 matches (win rate = 32.26%) and recent results show multiple losses entering this date, which indicates a low baseline win probability for her. In a two-player match that implies the opponent (Eleonora Toneva) has a true win probability near 67.74% (1 - 0.3226). The market prices are very close (Home 1.87, Away 1.85), which after accounting for the bookmaker margin implies roughly a 50/50 market view. That market view materially understates Eleonora's likelihood based on Velikova's documented win rate. Using our estimated true probability for the home player (0.6774) and the available home odds (1.87), the expected value is positive (EV = 0.6774 * 1.87 - 1 ≈ 0.266), meaning a +26.6% ROI on a 1-unit stake versus the offered price. We acknowledge the uncertainty from limited profile data for Eleonora and lack of head-to-head/surface split detail, so our estimate is conservative (we treat Velikova's historical win rate as the chief anchor). Given these inputs, the home side shows clear value at the quoted price.

Key factors

• • Velikova's documented career win rate 10/31 = 32.26% (poor recent form)
• • Market prices (1.87 vs 1.85) imply ~50/50 after removing vig — market understates home edge
• • No injury reports or H2H data available for Eleonora; estimate assumes two-player complementarity