Highlights

• • Home underdog value: market 3.28 vs our fair 3.125
• • Positive but modest edge (~5% ROI) with medium uncertainty

Pros

• + Price disparity gives a mathematically positive edge
• + Both players have clay experience so no obvious surface disadvantage for the home underdog

Cons

• - Adrian's superior win-rate and greater match volume favor him
• - Small sample sizes and limited recent-match detail increase outcome variance

Details

We compare the market prices (Home 3.28, Away 1.299) to our assessment from the players' recent records and surface profiles. Adrian Oetzbach has a stronger overall record (37-28, more matches) and is the clear favorite in the market, but the implied market price for Elgin Khoeblal (about 30.5%) is richer than our estimated true chance. We estimate Elgin's true win probability at ~32% based on relative form, clay experience for both, and small-sample volatility for Elgin; that implies fair odds of ~3.125. With the book offering 3.28 on Elgin, the play shows positive expected value (EV = 0.32 * 3.28 - 1 ≈ +0.0496, or ~4.96% ROI). Key uncertainties are limited sample sizes and lack of detailed recent-match context or injuries, but at available prices the underdog home side offers a small edge.

Key factors

• • Adrian has a stronger career record and more match experience
• • Both players have clay exposure; venue likely neutral but sample sizes small
• • Current home price (3.28) exceeds our fair threshold (3.125) producing a small positive EV