Highlights

• • Bookmaker implies Coulibaly ~31.3% chance; we estimate ~40%
• • EV at current price: +0.28 (28% ROI) on a 1-unit stake

Pros

• + Strong career win percentage supporting an underrated probability here
• + Offered odds (3.20) are well above our fair-price threshold (2.50)

Cons

• - Limited direct matchup/H2H information and only a small recent-sample on this exact event
• - Market favorite status for Harris may reflect factors not in the provided data (form/in-game matchups)

Details

The market prices Billy Harris at 1.33 (implied win probability ~75.2%), which is very steep given the available player data. Eliakim Coulibaly's career win rate (191-92, ~67%) is materially higher than Harris's career win rate (301-245, ~55%), and both players have recent activity on hard at Cassis, suggesting surface familiarity for Coulibaly. The bookmaker-implied probability for Coulibaly at 3.20 is 31.25%; we assess his true win probability closer to 40% based on superior career win percentage and comparable recent form. At p=0.40, the fair odds would be 2.50; the offered 3.20 therefore contains positive expected value (EV = 0.40*3.20 - 1 = 0.28). The market also shows ~6.4% combined margin, indicating the favorite may be over-priced by the book.

Key factors

• • Coulibaly's higher career win rate (191-92, ~67%) versus Harris (301-245, ~55%)
• • Both players have recent matches at Cassis on hard—no obvious surface disadvantage for Coulibaly
• • Market heavily favors Harris (1.33) implying ~75% chance, which we view as overstated